Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 23.737380 25.882525 28.208957 30.932562 34.050515 37.528633 41.730371
2025-11-16 20.412724 23.337328 26.738972 31.039825 36.408973 42.997169 51.866210
2025-11-23 18.035232 21.365113 25.451151 30.944110 38.315343 48.149475 62.796200
2025-11-30 16.254125 19.796800 24.332536 30.744381 39.894388 53.044949 74.586206
2025-12-07 14.945461 18.625784 23.508627 30.716810 41.582047 58.312845 88.389987
2025-12-14 13.839246 17.575830 22.682300 30.503643 42.871710 63.146923 102.982553
2025-12-21 13.311949 17.241857 22.782553 31.612309 46.334988 72.268158 129.016223
2025-12-28 12.489441 16.405364 22.051849 31.316536 47.394670 77.350879 148.997584
2026-01-04 11.844729 15.763982 21.536108 31.274959 48.849718 83.500884 174.570229
2026-01-11 11.369381 15.328212 21.282382 31.615154 51.028283 91.679134 210.461884
2026-01-18 10.823062 14.742058 20.736028 31.377821 52.048625 97.611065 244.078793
2026-01-25 10.343993 14.223757 20.251041 31.184327 53.110334 103.944969 284.406018
2026-02-01 9.924146 13.780291 19.868453 31.163666 54.600617 112.039510 340.923383
2026-02-08 9.505574 13.313618 19.412930 30.960741 55.682320 119.528923 405.307817
2026-02-15 9.118725 12.873992 18.969512 30.731718 56.673367 127.201245 483.694099
2026-02-22 8.760327 12.459065 18.537325 30.476518 57.563382 134.987442 579.293566
2026-03-01 8.463500 12.127352 18.224877 30.424348 58.936903 144.973997 717.438878
2026-03-08 8.163842 11.774295 17.849609 30.203338 59.854680 153.901616 879.127463
2026-03-15 8.076065 11.768478 18.091987 31.291307 64.388789 178.680511 1347.628505
2026-03-22 7.801346 11.431485 17.707831 30.997713 65.145032 189.001469 1713.632256
2026-03-29 7.578693 11.172448 17.450748 30.955822 66.612651 203.444092 2340.236641
2026-04-05 7.418170 11.012195 17.366954 31.290622 69.260018 225.419176 3653.694021
2026-04-12 7.197477 10.736690 17.047580 31.056600 70.156147 239.449580 5251.177676